Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
