A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
